Neural Basis of Confidence in Decisions

How does the brain make decisions and assess confidence?

We pioneered a computational behavioral approach to isolate distinct cognitive processes and translate them across species. By establishing a rigorous framework linking human confidence reports to statistical decision confidence, we identified the first neural correlates of confidence in animals (Kepecs et al., 2008, Nature). Our studies revealed that orbitofrontal cortex neurons encode a modality-general confidence signal that predicts confidence-driven behaviors (Masset et al., 2020, Cell). We also discovered a novel confidence-guided learning mechanism conserved across species, underscoring its broad behavioral relevance (Lak et al., 2020, eLifeM).

In ongoing research we are decoding cortical algorithms underlying confidence computation directly from spikes, recorded using high density electrophysiology, using advanced machine learning techniques. We are imaging orbitofrontal populations to identify fundamental cortical algorithms implemented by specific cell types to gain insights into how these cognitive operations are implemented.

Selected Publications

Rats use memory confidence to guide decisions
Joo HR, Liang H, Chung JE, Geaghan-Breiner C, Fan JL, Nachman BP, Kepecs A, Frank LM.. Current Biology (2021) Oct 25;31(20):4571-83

Behavior- and Modality-General Representation of Confidence in Orbitofrontal Cortex
Masset P, Ott T, Lak A, Hirokawa J, Kepecs A.. Cell (2020) Jul 9;182(1):112-126.e18. PMID: 32504542 PDF DOI

Reinforcement biases subsequent perceptual decisions when confidence is low, a widespread behavioral phenomenon
Lak A, Hueske E, Hirokawa J, Masset P, Ott T, Urai AE, Donner TH, Carandini M, Tonegawa S, Uchida N, Kepecs A.. Elife (2020) Apr 15;9:e49834. doi: 10.7554/eLife.49834 DOI

Frontal cortex neuron types categorically encode single decision variables
Hirokawa J, Vaughan A, Ott, T., Masset, P. & Kepecs A. Nature (2019) Dec;576(7787):446-451. doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1816-9 DOI

Neural correlates and behavioral impact of decision confidence
Kepecs, A., Uchida, N., Zariwala, H., Mainen, Z.F.. Nature (2008) 455 (7210):227-31. PMID: 18690210